Demographic Change
When society ages relentlessly
"130 years are the limit." The American sociologist Jay Olshansky is convinced that the human organism cannot live longer than that. A risky prognosis - like so many others with regard to human life expectancy. In 1928, Olshansky's fellow countryman Louis Dublin estimated the maximum life expectancy to be 65 years. "Whoever makes statements about man’s lifespan does so from within a limited lifespan", comments the director and chief demographer of the Rostock Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, James Vaupel, on those popular but rather unsubstantiated prognoses.
While the average life expectancy up to the 1850’s was only 40 years, it has been rising continuously since then. Today, men live 75 and women 80 years, with the average life expectancy still going up. For the future, the longevity researchers expect an even more dynamic increase than the current 3 months per birth cohort. Whether today’s primary school pupils will live to see the year 2150 though, as Texan scientist Steven Austad predicts, remains pure speculation for the time being.
Once you are 85
From 30 years onwards, the mortality probability rises significantly and doubles every eight years after that. But beyond 80, it drops noticeably: Very old people age more slowly. Longevity research has not yet been able to provide a satisfactory explanation for this phenomenon. For now, the genetic constitution, which is being closely looked at by the Research Group for Healthy Ageing, provides the best explanation why some people of 85 years and more are growing still older in good health.
The numbers speak a similar language for long-lived individuals older than 100 years. Nine out of 10 men never develop age-related diseases such as stroke, cancer or heart disease, or they occur very late in life. The same is true for 83% of the female centenarians.
Gender and longevity
It is very clear that more women reach the age of 100 than men. Eighty-five percent of all centenarians are female. But they are not as healthy as their male counterparts, the scientists discovered. Women are apparently more resistant against age-related and life-shortening diseases but their morbidity increases more steeply with age. Probable causes are their hormonal constitution and lesser muscle mass. Women grow significantly older than men although men are less frail and dependent on care if they reach old age.
Life-prolonging prosperity, hygiene and modern medicine
Apart from the hereditary disposition, living conditions and environmental factors have a far-reaching influence on life expectancy. Scientists have shown that for industrialized countries the prospects have been improving continuously. Progress in medical science, which translates into better medical care for huge parts of the population, improved hygienic conditions and arguably a healthier diet are the main reasons. Individual prosperity seems to play a role, too. The development of life expectancy in the geographical area of the former German Democratic Republic seems to corroborate these statements. Considerably lower during the existence of the German Democratic Republic, life expectancy has been on the rise ever since the reunification in the new federal states and nowadays matches that in the other federal states.
The deformed age pyramid as the challenge of the 21st century
Often, the ability to learn, well-being and personal satisfaction diminish in old age. With a decreasing birth rate, older citizens constitute an ever-growing part of the population. The age pyramid is turning into a mushroom with a narrow base and a broad rim. In 2050, approximately one third of Germany’s population will be older than 65 years. Nearly half of the retired population will even be older than 80. This trend has also been confirmed internationally: the world population report 2007 by the United Nations assumes that by 2050 the number of 60-year-olds will have trebled, which comes to two billion worldwide.
